Robin Xing, chief China economist at Morgan Stanley, said the emphasis now will be on non-monetary measures.
“They didn’t mention that they’re going to end the policy easing,” Xing said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Street Signs” of the politburo gathering.
“They’re relying more and more on fiscal easing,” he said, referring to a 2 trillion yuan (298 billion) package announced last month at the National People’s Congress that includes cuts to taxes and fees.
“It’s locked in, they’re not going back on that, there’s no possibility of scaling back the fiscal package,” Xing said, adding Morgan Stanley is still “confident that the overall policy mix is still supportive.”
China’s massive debt levels, which authorities were trying to bring under control before the trade war kicked in last year, are a major worry for policymakers.
Economists Larry Hu and Irene Wu at Macquarie Capital said that officials have to tread carefully as they will need to keep some stimulus in reserve in case the economy worsens.
“It’s understandable that policy makers have to reduce the intensity of stimulus once the economy shows signs of stabilization, as the amount of ammunition is limited,” Hu and Wu said in a note dated Sunday.
Stimulus is set to wane, they said, “as policy makers have to save the ammunition for the next dip, which should not be too far away, in our view.”
— CNBC’s Yen Nee Lee contributed to this report.
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